True Mobile-First

I chatted with my 14 year old cousin about how he uses technology (he lives in a major US city). He was kind enough to share his phone’s ScreenTime for that week:

device-usage.jpeg

Attention distribution across devices

This was a low-usage week for him. Apparently he averages 40–60 hrs of smartphone use per week, with YouTube and Instagram taking the lion’s share of his attention.

He’s never used Facebook and his entire social graph exists on Instagram. He’s drastically reduced his time on Snapchat and only uses it to text, which apparently feels better on Snapchat than on Instagram.

My cousin has access to laptops, iPads and his phone, and chooses his phone for the majority of the time he spends on devices. He barely touches the iPad lying around at home and uses a laptop only when he has a lot of typing to do for an assignment.

I wasn’t surprised that he spent most of his device time on his phone, but I was surprised by the number: 40–60 hours. I hit 15 hours on my phone, on a busy week. Most of my work happens on my laptop, and I don’t have much patience for many mobile experiences that I consider inferior to desktop-web counterparts (Why would I watch a movie on my phone when I have a high resolution, larger screened laptop sitting right next to me?)

My cousin lives in a mobile-first ecosystem, while I live in laptop-first one.

He’s far more comfortable doing things on his phone that I have the urge to pull my laptop out for. He can write long messages, watch many hours of video and even edit his assignments as he cranks out finishing touches close to the deadline. It’s common for students to pull out their phones in between each class, and it’s also becoming common for students to use their phones to participate in classroom activities through apps like: Kahoot! and Quizziz. (I was surprised that personal devices were enabled in the classroom as opposed to school administered devices, but this makes since given the budget cuts schools are facing now).

East and West

My cousin’s mobile usage in the US reminds me of how many of my friends in India and Vietnam use their phones. The majority in South East Asia, India, China will have leapfrogged desktop computing and use their smartphones are their primary internet access points.

Studying the mobile app ecosystem in China could be a good place to learn about how the next generation in the west will use technology (I highly recommend Dan Grover’s analysis of Chinese mobile app UI trends).

Future of Mobile

I think there are 2 interesting directions to explore the future of how we use our smartphones:

  1. What high value functions do we need laptops for today? Which of those, if made much simpler to do on your phone, would enable a new audience to participate in the internet economy?

  2. What experiences are only possible on your smartphone? (I won’t cover this in this post).

For example, if we just look at the process of starting and running a business, it’s painful to do the following on just your phone:

  • Design, build and launch your own website.

  • Build an online store for your offline business.

  • Handle orders, shipping & logistics.

  • Handle employee payroll.

Painful, yet not impossible. Yes, you could use the Shopify app to eventually launch a half-decent site, but the website building experience feels like an afterthought to the desktop-web experience.

shopify.PNG

Here I’m asked to choose the visual alignment of an image on my site by picking a text option from a dropdown. Clearly a non mobile-first design.

And oftentimes you need to use the desktop-web site in order to access critical functionality: for Shopify there’s no way to integrate marketplace apps from your phone — an essential part of setting up your business.

These constraints make sense. Shopify’s main customer base is in countries where laptop penetration is high, so there isn’t demand for a mobile first solution. But there’s likely a growing audience that’s left out of participating in the internet economy due to this user experience friction.

Perhaps Universe’s user experience is pointing in the right direction:

This platform feels like a toy aimed at teens, but the experience of dragging and dropping parts of your website on your screen is a much better mobile experience for building a website than what Shopify provides.

This mobile-only experience hints at the platform unbundling we might see in this next generation of mobile apps. I feel most mobile content creation is silo-ed in apps because of how difficult it is to publish to your own site. Once that barrier is broken, the incentives are in place for individual creators to differentiate by having their independent, customized online presence (in addition to participating on existing social platforms for distribution).

What about laptops?

I used to believe that if laptops were super affordable, then many that currently can’t afford one would get one so that they can be more productive. I now believe that as the app ecosystem enables higher value actions (building an online brand, selling things, etc.), in an true mobile first way, many wouldn’t want a laptop-like interface.

As this mobile first behavior shift continues, some incumbents will make the transition. Some won’t. I’m going to bet on new mobile first companies enabling functions we previously thought only made sense on your laptop to shake things up in the next 5 years.

Exciting times...

Footnotes

I attempted to write and publish this post entirely on my phone. Initially I had only wanted to publish on my blog (via Squarespace), but I ended up typing it out on the Medium iOS app because of how difficult the Squarespace Blog app was to use (I guess I should have actually read the reviews first).

Medium has a good mobile editor (iOS), but doesn’t allow me to publish elsewhere.

#opportunity: I’d be willing to pay $3 / mo for a well designed mobile text editor that would let me publish my article to Medium and my own site, which handles images and GIFs well.

Finding the Oasis in the Android Desert

It’s tough to make money in the Android universe. When I first started reading about Android smartphone manufacturer profits, I was shocked by how little, if any, profits were made selling Android devices.

How could Android smartphone manufacturers thrive in this environment?

Android

Android is open source, meaning it’s available under a license to let anyone study, develop on top of it, and distribute it. It’s conveniently called the Android Open Source Project (AOSP). If you’re a smartphone manufacturer (from here on out, will refer to them as Original Equipment Manufacturers or OEMs), you can build off of the AOSP for your devices, by agreeing to the “Android Compatibility Definition Document” that forces a standard, so that apps and services are guaranteed to work somewhat consistently across devices [1].

However, if an OEM wants access to Google apps, they have another agreement to sign with Google. This further restricts how differentiated an OEM can make their software experience.

The catch is: an OEM can’t pick and choose from the Google apps. It’s an all or nothing deal. If they want anything Google, they have to pre-install list of Google apps on their device, and only use the Play Store as the distribution channel for apps. And if Google doesn’t like any of the software modifications an OEM makes to their version, they can prevent access to their apps and services.

Google apps are tremendously popular [2]. This puts pressure on OEMs to comply, and provide access to these Google apps on the phones that they sell. Google is the house in this game: they capture most of the value. All apps are downloaded through the Google Play Store. Every time someone makes a purchase for an app, or within an app, a percentage of that transaction goes to Google.

It’s Difficult for Manufacturers to Make Money

Margins only really exist at the premium end of the smartphone price spectrum (think iPhone, Samsung Galaxies and flagship phones). Manufacturers realize this, so they release their latest and greatest “flagship” each year, priced at the top of the bracket.

This makes this segment hyper competitive. Due to the higher margins, there exist opportunities for OEMs that can wait out short term profits for a larger piece of the pie (e.g. OnePlus, a Chinese OEM, undercuts flagship phones, offering nearly the same specs as flagships, at a significantly lower price point).

Competing on hardware specs alone isn’t defensible. We’ve seen this with the churn in OEM standings in the last 5 years. When an OEM offers nothing more than a laundry list of specs, they are easily overthrown by the next OEM that figures out how to add more specs to the list / offer the same specs at a lower price.

How do OEMs Differentiate Themselves

We’ve reached an inflection point — smartphones are powerful enough to handle computationally intensive experiences like virtual reality. OEMs are in a powerful position when it comes to creating these experiences because they can go below the application level and add functionality that 3rd party app and peripheral developers can’t (without branching off and making their own versions of Android).

https://source.android.com/devices/sensors/images/ape_fwk_sensors.png

For example, some things that only OEMs or forks of Android could have pulled off as a result of their ability to make changes lower in the stack:

  • Cyanogenmod’s (a discontinued OS based on Android) multi-window functionality, could have only elegantly been done below the application layer (in the framework layer where the logic for how apps are rendered on screen is located). This feature allows two apps to share the screen. Google incorporated this feature into Nougat (the latest version of Android), but before this update OEMs (or OSs branched off of Android) had to implement it themselves if they wanted to provide this feature. [3]

  • The “OK Google” assistant’s “Always On” feature (where you can say “OK google” even when your phone is in standby, and it wakes up to assist you), is only implemented well on a few devices. To implement this feature well, OEMs need to make modifications at the hardware and firmware level of the stack.

  • Samsung’s virtual reality headgear, GearVR, only works on Samsung devices with optimizations such as reduced latency (which is a crucial factor affecting usability), which would be difficult to provide without making the modifications at the firmware, and hardware level of their phones.

  • Samsung’s Security layer (KNOX): Samsung wanted to target enterprise before Google’s Android was ready for it. So they introduced their own security layer at the system level that gave organizations the ability to efficiently, and securely manage their employees’ devices.

A Smartphone ecosystem that offers users a unique experience and optimizes inter-operability between its devices, is more defensible than a laundry-list of specs. OEMs realize this and are making efforts to connect various devices: VR, Cars, bikes, POS systems to offer that differentiated, seamless experience.

Challenges

Don’t forget who the house is, if you rely on Google’s distribution, apps, and services, you’re building your castle on their land. And Google isn’t necessarily happy with some of the innovations that OEMs have come out with.

For example, Google put a lot of pressure on Samsung and Cyanogenmod against releasing their multi-window features. Some of Google’s concerns were well founded: if an app didn’t work well in this new mode, it would result in a hampered experience, creating a scenario in which there would be ambiguity over whose fault it was — the app developer, OEM, or Android itself (and therefore Google by association).

One could argue that if an OEM wants to truly differentiate itself, it needs to take control of its own destiny by breaking away from Google and its apps and services. A few companies had the courage to do so, but…it didn’t go as well as they’d planned (e.g. Amazon’s Fire OS).

Because it’s damn tough. Most companies aren’t capable of building a world-class suite of apps to compete with Google’s offerings: Chrome, Maps, Docs, Youtube to name a few.

With more and more players entering the smartphone manufacturing business, the pressure to differentiate is growing. I predict we’ll see more companies attempt to break free from Google’s shackles, out of the desire to innovate (read: survive).

Footnotes

[1] Android developers already deal with the headache of fragmentation — which is that the latest Android version is adopted at a slow rate. Which means developers have to develop for multiple versions of Android, adding to the development time of their software. The more the inconsistencies between OEM implementations of Android, the greater the cost of developing an Android app. It’s in everyone’s best interest to make it easier for developers to build apps for the ecosystem.

[2] Google apps are extremely popular… outside of China. China is a completely different ballgame that we’ll cover in a later post.

[3] We’re also building a multi-window experience that resembles what you see in a desktop OS: ability to resize, minimize, maximize windows for our product, the superbook. It’s tricky to say the least. If you’re interested in transforming smartphones into laptops, reach out to us! We’re actively looking to hire talented Android engineers.

References

Thanks

Thanks Luke XieAllison Donine, and Jesse Sum for reading drafts, and providing valuable feedback.

I originally posted this on Medium.